Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.016102 0.018212 0.020497 0.023153 0.026159 0.029454 0.033343
2025-10-12 0.012920 0.015863 0.019319 0.023677 0.029033 0.035405 0.043573
2025-10-19 0.011222 0.014573 0.018731 0.024276 0.031487 0.040561 0.052875
2025-10-26 0.009741 0.013243 0.017790 0.024136 0.032781 0.044173 0.060371
2025-11-02 0.008661 0.012250 0.017099 0.024139 0.034124 0.047818 0.068099
2025-11-09 0.007656 0.011220 0.016206 0.023705 0.034731 0.050405 0.074480
2025-11-16 0.007038 0.010653 0.015876 0.023991 0.036326 0.054443 0.083221
2025-11-23 0.006386 0.009959 0.015278 0.023793 0.037135 0.057338 0.090440
2025-11-30 0.006014 0.009646 0.015206 0.024360 0.039124 0.062128 0.100938
2025-12-07 0.005393 0.008881 0.014359 0.023619 0.038959 0.063508 0.106074
2025-12-14 0.004930 0.008322 0.013783 0.023247 0.039333 0.065736 0.112724
2025-12-21 0.004457 0.007703 0.013053 0.022546 0.039077 0.066875 0.117585
2025-12-28 0.004314 0.007638 0.013249 0.023448 0.041654 0.073034 0.131745
2026-01-04 0.004119 0.007465 0.013244 0.024000 0.043668 0.078388 0.144968
2026-01-11 0.003950 0.007320 0.013274 0.024606 0.045814 0.084125 0.159356
2026-01-18 0.003684 0.006975 0.012914 0.024464 0.046563 0.087376 0.169359
2026-01-25 0.003464 0.006695 0.012647 0.024467 0.047573 0.091167 0.180687
2026-02-01 0.003205 0.006320 0.012171 0.024027 0.047687 0.093253 0.188831
2026-02-08 0.003060 0.006152 0.012076 0.024318 0.049247 0.098239 0.203168
2026-02-15 0.002869 0.005877 0.011748 0.024116 0.049798 0.101265 0.213736
2026-02-22 0.002779 0.005799 0.011804 0.024692 0.051976 0.107719 0.231982
2026-03-01 0.002556 0.005428 0.011240 0.023940 0.051323 0.108302 0.237752
2026-03-08 0.002389 0.005162 0.010870 0.023563 0.051429 0.110466 0.247107